US Midterms Put Pakistan's New Strategic Role at Risk

Pakistan faces a critical decision point as the United States heads into its midterm elections on November 3. Islamabad has built a close relationship with President Donald Trump, a shift that contrasts sharply with the strained ties Washington maintains with most other traditional allies. The outcome of the vote will determine whether this alliance survives or dissolves.

Political analysts expect Republicans to lose critical seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Trump’s second term has been marked by sweeping tariffs and the Iran war, actions that have pushed many nations to seek alternative partnerships. Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar stated in New York in late September that much of the world has had a more difficult relationship with the United States. Pakistan, a regional rival of India, has remained an exception to this trend.

The diplomatic thaw reversed years of deterioration. Previous US administrations favored India and viewed Islamabad with suspicion over its support for both the US and the Afghan Taliban. The relationship improved in March 2025 when Trump thanked Pakistan for helping arrest a suspect in the 2021 Kabul airport bombing. A major turning point occurred in May 2025 after India and Pakistan fought a four-day war triggered by the killing of 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir. A ceasefire was announced on May 10, with Pakistan crediting Trump for mediating the end to the fighting.

Since that conflict, Pakistani leaders have received high-level access to the White House. Trump hosted Field Marshal Asim Munir for lunch and referred to him as his favorite field marshal. A trade deal in July 2025 reduced US tariffs on Pakistani goods from 29 percent to 19 percent. The two countries also reached agreements on minerals, cryptocurrency, and drones. Pakistan further solidified the bond by nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Pakistan has also served as a diplomatic bridge in the Iran conflict. After US and Israeli attacks in February, Islamabad brokered a ceasefire on April 8 and hosted direct talks between the sides for the first time since 1979. The nations agreed to the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding in June. The 60-day window for further negotiations expired in mid-August without an extension. Munir’s fifth trip to Tehran on October 20 yielded no breakthrough.

Trump enters the election with declining support. A Pew Research Center survey conducted between September 28 and October 4 found his approval rating at 30 percent, down from 37 percent in January. Imran Khan, a geopolitical analyst and former Pakistan country director at the United States Institute of Peace, noted that a Democratic majority would likely prioritize treaty alliances like NATO and lean toward India.

Khan cautioned that Pakistan has gained little tangible benefit from Washington beyond a higher diplomatic profile. Grace Wermenbol of the German Marshall Fund observed that the Iran war continues to loom over the Gulf, with signs that the US and Israel could relaunch attacks after their respective elections. Israel holds its vote on October 27.

Qamar Cheema of the Sanober Institute argued that Pakistan should not tie its strategy to Trump’s influence, emphasizing its strength in the Middle East role. Khan stated that while a weaker Trump might change little in the short term, Pakistan’s raised global profile and defense relevance in West Asia would endure regardless of the election outcome.