Michigan State climbs to top seed as Duke slips in updated bracket projection

Michigan State Spartans coach Tom Izzo has reached his 32nd season, having secured a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament only four times in his career. Since 2001, this distinction has occurred just once, and it has not happened at all since 2012. The current 2026-27 campaign offers a promising opportunity for the Spartans to change that trajectory, particularly after a strong start that includes a significant victory over Duke.

The win over the Blue Devils is considered a crucial nonconference victory that surpasses the quality of their previous season's achievements. In the 2024-25 season, Michigan State earned a No. 2 seed after finishing with a 17-3 record in the Big Ten. However, the current season's opening against a top-tier opponent like Duke provides a stronger foundation for their seeding. Meanwhile, rivals Purdue and Michigan are expected to struggle to meet recent standards, creating an opening for the Spartans to potentially dominate the conference again.

In the updated in-season Bracketology released on Tuesday, Duke has slipped to a No. 2 seed. Although predictive metrics still favor the Blue Devils and suggest they are on track for a strong season, the loss to Michigan State indicates that the team is still a work in progress. This shift in standing highlights the volatility of the early season and the impact of high-profile nonconference matchups on committee perceptions.

UCLA has emerged as a notable riser in the projections, jumping from an initial No. 9 seed to a No. 4 seed. The Bruins earned this upgrade after defeating Arizona 84-75 on the first night of the season, followed by two subsequent wins in the buy game. Their current 3-0 record and the quality of the Arizona victory have solidified their status, despite a relatively light remainder of their nonconference schedule.

Arizona remains ranked ahead of UCLA in predictive metrics and faces upcoming challenges against Auburn and UConn. However, the Wildcats have dropped from a No. 1 seed to a No. 2 seed in this specific projection. Coaches and analysts will likely learn more about the trajectory of Tommy Lloyd’s program in the coming weeks as these high-stakes games take place.

In contrast, Purdue has experienced a significant decline in its seeding. The Boilermakers entered the season as a No. 5 seed but have since started 1-2 with losses to Gonzaga and Valparaiso. They are now listed as a No. 12 seed and are among the teams designated as 'Last Four In' for the tournament. Their continued presence in the projection is attributed to their top-40 standing in predictive metrics, which suggests a potential rebound is possible.

The NCAA has also adjusted its rules regarding rematches amid conference consolidation and tournament expansion. Official guidance no longer mandates avoiding nonconference rematches in the second round. While the committee will still try to avoid such rematches in the Opening and first rounds, these rules can be relaxed for conferences with more than nine teams in the field or if a league has multiple teams in the final 12 at-large slots.

These rule adjustments have led to the possibility of a first-round matchup between Tennessee and Florida State. The two teams play each other on December 1, but the committee may allow a rematch in the first round because the SEC has 13 teams in the projection and the ACC has two teams in the Opening Round. This approach helps avoid violating other bracketing principles.

Conference rematches are also permitted as early as the second round for teams that played only once before the tournament. This rule can be further relaxed for leagues with nine or more teams in the bracket, a category that includes the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC in the current projection.

The full 76-team bracket projection includes the following multi-bid conferences: the SEC with 13 teams, the Big Ten with 12, the Big 12 with 9, the ACC with 8, the Big East with 5, and both the Atlantic 10 and Pac-12 with 2 teams each. This distribution reflects the current landscape of competitive balance and seeding across major college basketball conferences.