Texas Republicans Fall Short in Mid-Decade Redistricting Bets
Despite a summer battle over new maps, Democrats held four of five targeted seats in the 2026 midterms.
By Amina Howard ·
The map was drawn with intent, but the voters had other plans.
In the summer of 2025, Texas state legislators approved a controversial redistricting plan designed to shift power toward Republicans. The goal was specific: secure five additional seats in the U.S. House of Representatives for President Donald Trump. Gov. Greg Abbott labeled the outcome a "huge win" at the time, claiming Texas added more Republican seats than any other state. That prediction did not hold up in the 2026 election.
The strategy focused on five specific districts: three in South Texas (28, 34, and 35), one in the Houston area (9), and one near Dallas (32). State House Republicans aimed to flip all five. By Wednesday afternoon, with 99% of the vote counted, the Associated Press called four of those districts for Democrats. Republicans are positioned to take only one seat, in District 32, where Jace Yarbough leads by three points.
Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, described the effort as a "dummy-mander" rather than a true gerrymander. He noted that polling from a year prior showed many Latino voters regretting their support for Trump. In several key counties, Democratic support reached 70%, a record level for the party in those areas.
Money did not buy the outcome. AdImpact reported that the race in District 34 became the seventh most expensive in the nation, with more than $44 million spent. Vicente Gonzalez defeated Republican Eric Flores by a double-digit margin. In District 28, incumbent Henry Cuellar also held his seat by a wide margin. Andrew Cates, a political attorney, argued that Democrats used their resources more strategically than the heavily funded GOP candidates.
The failure was most visible in the two districts Republicans considered safest. In District 9, Republican Alex Mealer conceded within an hour of polls closing. He had raised millions of dollars but lost to Leticia Gutierrez, who campaigned with roughly $150,000. Mealer acknowledged the "challenging backdrop" to a small group of supporters at a barbecue restaurant in Baytown.
Josh Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project, attributed the results to national currents and low approval ratings for the president. He warned against assuming the state has turned decisively blue, noting that Texas remains competitive and depends on how effectively Democrats utilize their current advantages.
