Tigray faces uncertain peace as TPLF disputes claims of defeat

Ethiopia's federal army has captured Tigray's main towns, but accounts of continuing combat and promises of renewed attacks by the Tigray People's Liberation Front have challenged government assertions that the war is effectively finished. Residents remain anxious about security, while analysts disagree over whether the movement can sustain another major military campaign.

The latest fighting began in late September, reviving a conflict that officially ended in 2022 after two years of civil war. Federal troops entered Mekelle, the regional capital, less than two weeks later, encountering little resistance after the TPLF withdrew from major towns. Hundreds of people reportedly died during the fighting, including dozens in drone attacks and air force bombing raids. Getachew Reda, a former senior TPLF official now advising the prime minister, said the war had ended and regional stabilisation should take priority.

TPLF spokesperson Mikael Asgedom rejected that assessment in a telephone interview with the BBC from an undisclosed location. He said the withdrawal was intended to draw federal troops into territory where they could be isolated and attacked under conditions more favourable to TPLF fighters. He also claimed the group was preparing a major counteroffensive and had already attacked Ethiopian forces in several places since leaving the towns.

Independent verification remains difficult, and the BBC cannot report from inside Tigray. Telephone and internet services have resumed after being disconnected when fighting began. Residents told the broadcaster that artillery fire and drone strikes were continuing in central, northern and north-western areas. Witnesses near Sheraro, close to Eritrea, described recent heavy combat. Sources aligned with the federal military also reported ongoing operations, saying the TPLF's capabilities were being weakened.

African peace and security analyst Cameroon Hudson attributed the TPLF's rapid retreat to internal fractures, declining public support, the loss of experienced personnel and its technological disadvantage against federal forces. He said a guerrilla campaign could continue but considered another large-scale war unlikely. Mekelle University scholar Abraha Hailezgi said coercion, abuses and forced recruitment had alienated residents from the TPLF's armed forces.

US-based Ethiopian commentator Yared Tibebu offered a different outlook, arguing that the TPLF's experience of prolonged armed struggles could help it recover. He expected internal divisions to delay renewed offensives, an assessment Mikael dismissed. Yared also saw potential in the Alliance for Survival, a coalition announced in September by seven Ethiopian rebel groups led by the TPLF. Hudson doubted that the alliance could seriously challenge federal military strength.

Eritrea's involvement adds uncertainty. Witnesses reported seeing Eritrean troops in Tigray in early October amid accounts that they were supporting the TPLF, although the troops appear to have since returned home. Ethiopian army sources told the BBC that Eritrean authorities ordered senior TPLF political figures to leave in early November, fearing their presence could give Ethiopia grounds for an invasion.

For residents, the renewed violence has revived memories of the 2020-2022 war, which involved widespread human rights abuses and allegations of ethnic cleansing in Western Tigray. Estimates put its death toll in the hundreds of thousands. Abraha argued that lasting peace requires the federal government to address Tigray's sense of economic and political marginalisation.

In Mekelle, salon owner Firut Me'ar said customers struggling to feed their children could scarcely afford beauty treatments. A single mother with a 10-year-old daughter, she described business as almost absent and residents as exhausted by uncertainty. Speaking to the BBC, she said: "Whatever happens, we only want peace and a chance to rebuild our lives."