Colorado House: Four Red Seats in Peril
Cook Political Report downgrades Lauren Boebert’s district to Lean Republican, while Democrats pour millions into three other races.
By Lucas Navarro ·
Six million dollars in attack ads went unanswered in one of Colorado’s reddest congressional districts, according to the Cook Political Report. The report now rates Lauren Boebert’s 4th Congressional District as Lean Republican, a sharp downgrade from its previous Solid Republican status.
This shift marks the most dramatic change in the state’s four Republican-held U.S. House seats ahead of Tuesday’s election. Boebert, who moved from the 3rd District to the 4th to seek a safer seat, faces retired Rear Admiral Eileen Laubacher. The district voted for Donald Trump by 18 points in 2026, yet new polling suggests the race is closer than expected.
The 5th Congressional District has moved to a Tossup rating, according to the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Jeff Crank, the Republican incumbent who won by 14 points in 2024, now faces Democratic challenger Jessica Killin. Killin served as chief of staff for three members of the U.S. House and for Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff.
In the 3rd Congressional District, Democrats have invested $2.1 million in the campaign of Dwayne Romero, the challenger to Republican incumbent Jeff Hurd. Romero is a West Point graduate and former Army Ranger. Analysts currently rate this seat as Likely Republican, but the influx of funding signals a belief that the polls are tightening.
The 8th Congressional District, previously considered the hottest race in the state, is now rated Lean Democrat. Gabe Evans, the Republican incumbent, faces Manny Rutinel. The district has held this rating since the summer primaries, indicating the race has cooled slightly compared to earlier in the year.
Colorado’s congressional map presents a unique challenge for the GOP. The state currently has a 4-4 split in its U.S. House delegation. Republicans hold no statewide offices and have elected only one governor in more than 50 years. The state House and Senate are overwhelmingly Democratic, with potential supermajorities expected after the count.
Boebert’s district remains the most structurally safe for Republicans. Nearly 100,000 more registered voters are Republicans than Democrats in the 4th District. Laubacher has raised more than $13 million for her campaign, while Boebert has raised barely over $1 million. Despite this disparity and Boebert’s recent public disputes with the White House, the raw voter registration numbers favor the incumbent significantly.
The Cook Political Report maintains a high accuracy rate for its ratings. An internal review cited by the Washington Post indicates that in 10,375 called races since 1984, its Likely ratings were 97% correct and its Lean ratings were 94% correct. This track record adds weight to the current downgrades in Colorado’s key districts.
If the current polling trends hold, Republicans could lose multiple seats in a state where they have retained a foothold for decades. The shift in ratings from Solid to Lean in Boebert’s district represents a major departure from historical norms in the area. The final outcome will depend on whether the national Democratic wave reaches these specific local races.
