Likud drops to 20.7% as Israeli voters leave Netanyahu without a majority

Israelis faced weeks of political uncertainty on Wednesday after an election that weakened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s grip on power. The vote count suggests neither the outgoing government nor its main challenger can secure a majority on their own. This forces complex coalition negotiations that could determine whether a Jewish and Arab alliance forms to unseat Netanyahu.

With 88% of votes counted, Netanyahu’s Likud party received 20.7% of the vote. His main rival, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, took 16.2%. Arab-led parties secured 15% of the vote. Local media projections show Likud and its allies holding 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Eisenkot’s bloc holds 48 seats, while Arab-led parties hold 19. A majority requires 61 seats.

The absence of a clear winner means the president, Isaac Herzog, will decide who attempts to form a government. Herzog is not required to task the leader of the largest party. He stated on Wednesday that he must do everything possible to avoid another round of elections. Final results are expected by Thursday evening, once half a million absentee ballots from military personnel and diplomats are counted.

Netanyahu’s party claimed the election was stolen by Arab parties and asked authorities to investigate. They did not provide specific evidence. The elections committee reported that irregularities were much lower than in previous elections. Netanyahu warned against forming a dangerous government that includes Arab parties. These parties represent 20% of the population.

Eisenkot, a former military chief, has left open the possibility of partnering with Arab parties. His conditions include their recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and of Hamas as an extremist group. Some of his likely partners have ruled out such an alliance but may change their minds to remove Netanyahu from office. A unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot remains another debated option.

Voter turnout reached nearly 78%, the highest since 1999. The vote reflected anger over military draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox population and unease with Netanyahu’s far-right allies. Likud’s share declined from 23.4% in 2022. National security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir lost support after taunting Palestinian detainees and asserting that many in Gaza are not even people.

Arab parties’ strong performance forces a debate on the identity of the state. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, said, "We have no future here if we do not stop being afraid." Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, declared at his party headquarters, "We are here, we are not on the sidelines." The United Arab List is the only Arab party to have joined a governing coalition, briefly, in 2021.

Voters in Tel Aviv expressed mixed views on the prospect of an Arab coalition. Hanna Doukhan said, "I don’t see a possibility to form a government without the Arabs." Eti Wissotzky-Cohen hoped the move would repair society while preserving Israel as the Jewish national home. In Nazareth, Awni Zoabi thanked God for a possible return to rationality, noting that the Arabic language has become as if it were a crime.

If no majority is formed, new elections could occur early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 due to a similar stalemate. Eisenkot told supporters on Wednesday, "After an election with such high voter turnout, it would be a mistake to hold another election." Minority governments are also possible but must rely on outside parties to pass legislation.