Kalshi Markets: 49ers Favored at 80 Cents in Week 9 Showdown
San Francisco is a heavy favorite against the 4-4 Raiders, who are seeking to extend their recent momentum.
By Andrew Kovalenko ·
Traders on the Kalshi platform are pricing the San Francisco 49ers' win probability at 80 percent for their Week 9 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. The price for a 49ers victory stands at $0.80 per share. The opposing market for a Raiders win sits at $0.21 per share, reflecting a 21 percent likelihood in the current market data.
The game is scheduled for a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. The 49ers are coming off a bye week after a 29-20 loss to Atlanta. That defeat marked the first of the season for San Francisco, which was previously unbeaten. The Raiders, meanwhile, ended a four-game losing streak last weekend with a win over the New York Giants.
San Francisco enters the contest with a 6-1 record, holding the top spot in the NFC West. The team is tied for the best mark in the conference. Key receiver Mike Evans is expected to return to the lineup this weekend after an injury absence.
Las Vegas is 4-4 on the season. The Raiders started the year with a 3-0 record under first-year head coach Klint Kubiak before dropping four straight games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown 19 touchdown passes in seven games this year.
SportsLine, a modeling firm that simulates NFL games 10,000 times, projects the Raiders will win 28 percent of the time. The model suggests the teams will keep the score close in the majority of simulations.
The market also prices the spread. A 49ers victory by more than 9.5 points trades at $0.52. A Raiders win or a 49ers victory by fewer than 9.5 points trades at $0.49. This pricing indicates a near-even chance that the margin of victory will be small or in Las Vegas' favor.
Offensive statistics suggest a high-scoring affair is likely. San Francisco ranks fourth in the NFL in points per game at 28.1. The Raiders are sixth with 27.6 points per game. The market sets the total points line at 52.5. A 'yes' outcome for more than 52.5 points trades at $0.53, while a 'no' outcome trades at $0.48.
