Israeli Voters Decide Netanyahu's Fate

Israeli voters cast ballots on Tuesday in a parliamentary race that functions less as a traditional left-right debate and more as a direct referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Benjamin Netanyahu first entered the prime ministerial office three decades ago and has occupied that seat for 19 of the last 30 years. Current polling indicates that pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu camps are running nearly neck and neck. The opposition is led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff who entered politics only four years ago. His party, Yashar, translates to straight or direct. Eisenkot proposes US-style term limits for the prime minister, arguing that power corrupts. At a recent rally in Modi'in, a city between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, attendees praised his plain speaking style. Noa Sadeh, a 56-year-old supporter, said she is tired of politicians who only know how to talk and wants a leader who will act.

The anti-Netanyahu bloc includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both of whom previously worked closely with Netanyahu before falling out with him. On the far right, Yishai Fleisher of the Otzma Yehudit party argued that Netanyahu drifts left and needs to be pulled to the right. Fleisher advocated for more settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, a new ministry to encourage the voluntary departure of Palestinians, the death penalty, and more weapons for Jewish civilians. Netanyahu’s campaign has framed the choice as a battle between Yamin and Falastin, linking opposition leaders with parties representing Palestinian citizens, who make up about a fifth of the population.

The election takes place against a backdrop of significant recent events. The deadliest attack in Israel’s history occurred on October 7, 2023, while Netanyahu was in office. Subsequent fighting in Gaza killed more than 70,000 Palestinians, a toll that includes those Israel identifies as Hamas combatants. Despite these casualties, Hamas was not eradicated, and Israel’s international standing has suffered. Netanyahu also faces an ongoing corruption trial and the political fallout from his attempt to curb the supreme court. Oded Levi, who voted for Netanyahu in 2022 but attended an Eisenkot rally this week, stated that whoever is prime minister at the time is responsible for the country's direction.

Netanyahu’s durability is attributed to a loyal base built over three decades. His allies claim that army and intelligence chiefs kept him in the dark before the October 7 attacks, a narrative that observers note lacks evidence. Many analysts expect Netanyahu to outmaneuver rivals in post-election coalition talks. Opposition hopes rest partly on liberal, secular expatriate Israelis flying home to vote, a group that pollsters do not fully capture. If the result turns on a single one of the Knesset’s 120 seats, these voters could prove decisive.

On Thursday, a state ceremony marked the 1995 assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. Netanyahu stayed away from the event and sent a low-ranking minister in his place. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats and a former general, expressed optimism that opposition leaders could agree on a long-term regional security process, though he avoided using the phrase peace process. A video shared widely this week showed young Israelis at a Negev music festival singing Shir LaShalom, a song Rabin performed before his death 31 years ago.