European heat wave kills 50,391, with two-thirds linked to warming
New research attributes 32,619 deaths in 854 cities to fossil fuel-driven temperature rises, a sharp increase from 2022.
By Andrew Kovalenko ·
A record-breaking heat wave across Europe in June, July, and August resulted in the deaths of 50,391 people, according to a study scheduled for publication in Nature Health. Researchers at Imperial College London calculated that 32,619 of these fatalities were directly attributable to the additional heat generated by human-caused climate change.
The death toll for this summer is 71 percent higher than the previous record set in 2022, when the same research team counted 29,480 heat-related deaths. The current figures cover 854 European cities, which contain approximately 40 percent of the continent's population. Italy, France, Spain, and Germany recorded the highest numbers of fatalities.
A specific heat wave between June 17 and July 1 drove approximately one-third of the total deaths. During that period, temperatures averaged 5.3 degrees Celsius above normal, according to Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a biostatistician at Imperial College London and co-author of the study. While more than half of the victims were aged 85 or older, the extreme heat also killed more than 800 people between the ages of 20 and 44.
Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and lead author, noted that some cities experienced temperatures 12 degrees Celsius above normal. She stated that infrastructure in much of Western and Northern Europe was not designed for such conditions. Barnes added that Europe is the fastest-warming continent, now 2.5 degrees Celsius hotter than pre-industrial levels.
The research team used computer simulations to model a world without climate change and compared it with actual mortality data to isolate the impact of global warming. Barnes said the share of heat deaths linked to warming has risen from about 45 percent in the early 2000s to 65 percent now. The study relies on statistical models that account for age and optimal temperature thresholds, as heat deaths are often underreported on official death certificates.
The model's estimates align closely with government data. For heat waves in Britain in May and June, the model calculated 2,700 excess deaths, while the UK's health statistics agency reported 2,800. Dr. Howard Frumkin, former director of the U.S. National Center for Environmental Health, said the increasing accuracy of attribution tools combined with hotter summers is producing higher and more reliable death counts.
Experts emphasized the need for simultaneous action on adaptation and emissions. Dr. Courtney Howard, president-elect of the Canadian Medical Association, called for investment in early-warning systems and equitable access to cooling. Dr. Jonathan Patz of the University of Wisconsin-Madison argued that society must address fossil fuel burning to stop the source of the warming rather than only managing the resulting heat.
