Arizona Ballots: 1.5 Million Logged Before Election Day

Arizona has recorded roughly 1.5 million ballots as of Friday morning, about half of the total turnout projected for the year, according to counts reviewed by the political desk.

Dennis Welch, political editor, reviewed the early figures with Adam Kinsey, a director at Uplift Campaigns, a Democratic-leaning firm that tracks returns. Kinsey said the data shows activity for both parties: Democrats are turning out first-time voters and locking in their reliable base early, while a large group of consistent Republican voters has not yet returned ballots. "What that tells me is there are a lot of Republicans that still have ballots that are expected to vote," Kinsey said, adding that those either stay home or bring the ballots to the polls on Election Day.

If Republican turnout surges at polling sites on Tuesday, Democrats would be expected to hold an early lead on election night, with Republicans closing the gap as day-of ballots are counted.

Welch's full conversation with Kinsey airs Sunday morning on "Politics Unplugged." Arizona's general election takes place Tuesday.